Volume 2, Issue 10
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Volume 2, Issue 10 |
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Archives Verifying with Voynich published: September 20, 2004 updated: Nov. 12, 2004 Of all the mysterious manuscripts that had defied explanation the Voynich manuscript stood alone. This hand lettered book, with lavish illustrations had defied the best efforts of some of the best cryptographers in the world since its discovery in Italy in 1912. US and British codebreakers who had broken the key to Enigma in World War II were stumped by this 234 page oddity. Over the years many scholars made the journey to Yale's Beinecke Rare Book and Manuscript Library and have put their expertise and reptution on the line. Linguists, mathematicians, medievalists, literary scholars, and cryptographers have tried and failed to decipher the medieval looking code. Finally, the mystery was solved. But not by the usual suspects. Gordon Rugg, a psychologist from Keele University in England used the Voynich Manuscript as a beta test for a new form of problem solving: "a scientific method to verify the methods of science." Known as the the Verifier Method there are seven steps:
Within the space of three months using this approach Rugg was able to come up with the most plausible explanation for the Voynich Manuscript - and it wasn't one that made people happy. The book that had baffled the experts was a hoax! In a way Rugg regretted bursting the bubble, "The Voynich is such a challenge," he said in an interview with Wired magazine, "such a social activity. But then along comes someone who says 'Oh, it's just a lot of meaningless gibberish.' It's as if we're all surfers, and the sea has dried up." But as Wired Magazine pointed out, the larger story is not so much that Rugg "cracked" the Voynich because he was smarter, but rather that by focusing on what everyone else had missed he had solved the problem. Experts tend to fudge the facts in order to make them fit their hypotheses. According to a recent study of work published in Nature, up to 11% of all published papers had serious statistical errors. If you take this into account, states Rugg, think of how much big science is based on mistaken insight. Experts rely on specialized tools, approaches and thinking that are considered unique to their domain and that requires years of effort to acquire and learn. If the Verifier Method is correct, then you can use one "kit" across disciplines to solve outstanding problems. With The Anthropogene celebrating one year of publishing (it's a big deal to me!) it's worth taking note of what has been done here. I'm sure a lot of what I've written would fail the Verifier Method - like anyone who aspires to be a specialist, I have my biases and have worked off faulty or incorrect research. But being a virtual explorer means that I have tried to rely on more than the traditional methods of archaeology. For example, I have spent numerous hours learning about methane hydrate beds and hydrogen sulfide in the Black Sea. These unrelated topics do have bearing on human history as we are discovering. Having only recently read the article about the Verifier Method, I don't claim to have fully synthesized the seven steps, nor have I brought them to bear on the articles I have written. However, this is as good a time as any to review and see how well the articles hold up. I know there are now quite a few knowledgeable people out there, and their criticisms are invited. - The quotation from the Lamentations of Ipuwer. Fortunately I'm safe using it in the context that I do. I don't specify when it was written, I use it in a general context. Everybody uses Ipuwer to prove something went wrong - for the Old Kingdom the Middle Kingdom, etc. - Never did write Discoveries in Climatology as promised. Something I really should do since climatology plays an important part in my research. A Digression on Krete, Part One - The whole "Minoan" issue. A meaningless argument in hindsight. Until we find out what these people called themselves - then Smith's name stands. I still prefer the Greek spelling. They don't have "c's" Random Thoughts about the Past - and Present - A minor foray into the environmental politics of the present day. Not sure it was really appropriate A Digression on Krete, Part Two - No problem. A Digression on Krete, Part Three - 1627 BC holds for the Theran eruption. I keep seeing the older and erroneous dates still being pushed, and someone like David Rohl who wants to make the Egyptian record fall into place with his effort at chronology steadfastly ignores the evidence. - The Hyksos were in power during the time of the Theran eruption. - Wunderlich. His basic thesis can't be ignored. BUT, I can't imagine why the Minoans would use giant amphora to store the ashes of their dead. Plus. No one has ever detected bone fragments in the amphora. Was the labyrinth a warehouse? Perhaps a better look at the Egyptian labyrinth would be helpful.. Krakatau, version 1.0 - Part One , Part Two, and Part Three - I hate the title now. As if Krakatau was a software release. Oh well. - Baillie's dating for a period of environmental stress holds . Would like to have confirmation from GISP2. - And has there been any definite dating to confirm the theory? Were Sumatra and Java joined together so recently? - I fell for a modern nationalistic trap. Trypillya and the Cucuteni culture are one and the same and are considered the Cucuteni culture. Modern nation states have arbitrarily split up the culture to for chauvinistic reasons.This is a huge problem that will plague nation states . Eastern European countries and India/China have some serious issues with this. - When speaking with a native Moldovan about Trypillya I received total incomprehension on his part, later when I mentioned Cucuteni he knew exactly what I was talking about. Only a small segment of Ukrainian archaeologists refer to the Cucuteni as Trypillya. - After reading Marija Gimbutas seminal work on the subject, I realized this article is probably in need of a serious rewrite. Both Trypillya and Kurgan while thematically okay, have some problems. My knowledge base was limited and could have been better. The Mother City articles, One and Two - I'm not happy with these articles now. I end up paraphrasing the National Geographic channel , sad to say watching the tv special would probably be more informative. I was starting to suffer burnout until I struck on the happy notion of only updating once a month. Why I put such pressure on myself to churn out material - I blame it on beginner's enthusiasm. The Anthropogene almost got cancelled. - I still can't believe the Chinese passed on maritime exploration. 1421 - Strongly recomend the the critique of 1421 at House of Maat. In fact, I would strongly recomend this site for second opinions. - My most speculative article. Chinese in New Zealand? Mahuika, super tsunami. - I don't know - good fiction. Cedric Bell would disagree. - A more likely candidate for the "super tsunami" instead of the disputed Mahuika event would be a proven giant landslide off Tahiti that undoubtedly generated some enormous tsunamis some 650 to 850 years ago. (I would like to thank the Atlantis Rising member who pointed this out, but they seem to have removed their posting on the topic...) Epilogue for the Chinese Mariners - Lake Chad opened my eyes to an enormous issue that isn't properly addressed or shown in maps of the ancient world, the vanished lakes. The world truly was different. - Sticking my toe into well-beaten waters. - Weird, where the heck is the historical Solomon? - The Omrides of Israel certainly end up as the whipping dogs of Judah. Historical revisionism is not a new issue.. - Why the title? just linking it from the bible references to segue from the Omri account. - Atlantis. An even more dangerous topic as I discovered recently on the Atlantis Rising Forum. Fortunately I keep to the Tartessians. And Now for Something Completely Different - I've had attacks of writer's block doing this webpage. Not with this article. I wrote it in one night. Started as a joke and then became rather interesting. - An speculative and interesting look at the first human migratory wave out of Africa. Yet another national pride problem; India, Australia and Yemen all have official issues with this topic.. UPDATE: More prescient an article than I imagined. The recent discoveries shed a whole new light on this topic: http://www.nature.com/news/specials/flores/index.html The Grave of the Sun, Part One - A catastrophe leads to an ancient travelogue. What's more interesting? The catastrophe or the adventurer. - Yet more modern nationalist fervour with the Slovenian Veneti. - Had to really dig for this article, Kaali is almost unknown in the West. And of course I got sidetracked by the Idol of Gadir. |
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