First Shootout Survey


by Chris Allen

October 1995


Copyright (c) 1995

The following is the result of a poll of North American soccer fans surveying their opinions on scoring/standings systems and the rules under which MLS (and, by implication, all of North American pro soccer) should adopt.

The first section is an "Executive Summary" which explains the poll's rationale, methods used, major findings and implications. The survey questions and their answers follow.


1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


+ WHY THE POLL?

For many years -- since the start of the North American Soccer League (over 25 years ago) -- US soccer officials have made numerous assumptions about what soccer fans want and don't want to see in terms of scoring systems and laws (rules) of the game. Yet little -- if any -- concrete evidence has ever been presented that actually shows real fan preferences. This survey addresses this issue and provides some concrete data from the fans -- that is, the customers -- of pro soccer in North America to demonstrate what we DO want to see.

+ METHODS USED

An initial survey questionnaire was designed by Gervase Lam (G.C.Lam@sheffield.ac.uk) and circulated on the North American Soccer mailing list (na-soccer@hoplite.org) on the Internet. After considerable discussion among list members, with significant additional input from Eric Vormelker (griiki@mail.utexas.edu), Mr. Lam initiated an email poll via the na-soccer list. At the same time, Matt Mathai (mmathai@clark.net) designed a World Wide Web version of the poll and conducted the same survey on his Washington MLS supporters' web page (http://www.clark.net/pub/mmathai/mls). It was also accessible via Mark Wheeler's US Soccer page (http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~mdwheel/us-soccer/).

Voting was open for 1 week in order that results could be tabulated and disseminated widely before the MLS press conference on October 17th.

There was a statistically-significant total of 550 valid responses (562 total, 101 via the na-soccer mailing list and 461 via the WWW page). In order to prevent "ballot stuffing", duplicates were screened, with only the latest vote from a duplicate address being recorded. There were fewer than 10 duplicates.

+ FINDINGS

The most significant general finding is that an overwhelming majority of respondents favor FIFA Standards, especially on what we are calling "core" issues. Equally significant is that *85%* of the voters were from North America.


+ CORE ISSUES (those affecting the structure of the game): 

  + 94.3% want a 90 minute running time. No 60 minute stop clock!

  + 88.8% want a 3/1/0 (W/D/L) scoring system! Fans want draws!

  + 87.1% want throw-ins, not kick-ins!

  + 83.2% want no timeouts interrupting play!

  + 69.4% want promotion/relegation within 5 years! 
  + 89.0% want it within 10 years!

  + FIFA-Standard Playoff formats are preferred: 
    + 48.3% want a 2 leg (Home-away) system with aggregate (totaled) goals.
    + 15.2% want a one game "knock out" system.
    + only 24.4% want a version of the US-style "best of three" playoff.

  + 80.5% want NEITHER a USISL "live shootout" NOR an 18 yard penalty kick


+ PERIPHERAL ISSUES: (not affecting fundamental structure of game)

  + if there are to be playoffs, 56.3% want 4 or fewer teams to qualify

  + 66.1% prefer Penalty Kicks vs Shoot Outs as a playoff tiebreaker

  + 50.2% want to retain the 10 yard free kick wall

  + 59.9% want "good/non-gimmicky" team names.
     (28.4% more want "international-style" ones)



+ IMPLICATIONS

Many of the poll's findings seem to contradict the assumptions that have animated US soccer for over 25 years. It is elementary that any good business should understood -- if not heed 100% -- customer preferences in order for the business to succeed.

If US soccer officials would like to survey fan preferences more widely with a professional marketing research organization, then please do so and publicize the findings. Perhaps a wider sample consisting of: soccer publications' mailing lists; MLS (and other pro leagues') season ticket depositors; Soccer catalog mailing lists; and World Cup ticket purchasers, among others would provide additional findings. We invite other professional attempts to replicate or falsify our survey.

The main point of this exercise, however, is that we don't think that a firm should undertake key business decisions without actually knowing what their customers want!


2. NORTH AMERICAN AND MLS SURVEY RESULTS
(*) denotes the answers that go towards the FIFA percentage (see later).
THE QUESTIONS

1) What points system would you like to be used to compile
   the league table? (546)

a. International (FIFA) standard   88.8% (485)*
   3 for a win,
   1 for a tie (draw),
   0 for a loss
b. A-League system                  8.1%  (44)
   3 for a normal time win,
   2 for a shoot-out win,
   1 for a shoot-out loss,
   0 for a normal time loss
c. USISL system                     3.1%  (17)
   6 for a win after normal time or OT
   4 for a USISL shoot-out win
   2 for a USISL shoot-out loss
   0 for a loss after normal time or OT
   *PLUS* a point per normal time goal (but no more than 3)


2) When would you like the MLS to have promotion/relegation? (526)

a. As soon as it starts    27.6% (145)*
b. Within 5 years          41.8% (220)*
c. Between 5 to 10 years   19.6% (103)*
d. Between 10 to 20 years   6.3%  (33)*
e. Over 20 years            0.2%   (1)*
f. None at all              4.6%  (24)


3) Would you like the MLS to be...? (546)

a. A one league, full season competition   38.6% (211)
b. A regular season competition with conferences, followed by group
   rounds                                  12.1%  (66)
c. A regular season competition with conferences, followed by
   play-off games                          49.3% (269)


4) If there are to be games after the regular league season, how many
   teams would you like to qualify for these games? (531)

a. 2    10.2%  (54)
b. 4    46.1% (245)
c. 6    16.0%  (85)
d. 8    23.7% (126)
e. More  4.0%  (21)

5) If there are play-off games, what format would you like them to
   follow? (540)

a. Just 1 game                                               15.2%  (82)*
b. 1 game.  If the game is tied, the game is replayed        12.0%  (65)
c. 2 leg (Home-away) system with aggregate (totaled) goals  48.3% (261)*
d. 3 game series with tied games                              8.7%  (47)
e. 3 game series with no tied games                          15.7%  (85)


6) If a play-off game or series is tied (depending on the scenario you
   have previously chosen) and the tie has to be resolved, how would
   you like the game or series to be resolved? (538)

a. Go immediately to penalty-kicks/USISL shoot-out        2.2%  (12)*
b. 30 min OT, followed by penalty-kicks/USISL shoot-out  25.1% (135)*
c. 30 min sudden death OT, followed by p-kicks/USISL shoot-out 31.4% (169)*
d. 30 min OT followed by infinite sudden death OT        18.4%  (99)
e. Go immediately to infinite sudden death OT           22.9%  (123)


7) If penalty kicks or a USISL shoot-out has to decide a game, which
   would you prefer? (528)

a. USISL shoot-out  33.9%  (179)
b. Penalty kicks    66.1%  (349)*


8) How many additional substitutes should be allowed over a period of OT?
   (548)

a. None  20.6% (113)*
b. 1.    39.8% (218)
c. 2     38.0% (208)
d. 3      1.6%   (9)


9) When the ball goes over the touch (side) lines, what method would
   you like to be used to put the ball back into play? (549)

a. Kick-in    4.7%  (26)
b. Kick-in within a mark 35yd from corner flag, otherwise throw-in 8.2% (45)
c. Throw-in  87.1% (478)*


10) For a direct free kick, what should be the distance between the ball
    and the defending players' wall? (549)

a. 10yds  51.2% (281)*
b. 10yds, but then 15yds if players encroach the free-kick spot AND
   the free-kick taker would gain an advantage  32.2% (177)
c. 15yds  16.6%  (91)


11) What additional penalty should a team incur if the team concedes
    more than a number of direct free-kicks? (539)

a. Live shoot-out  7.1%  (38)
b. 18yd penalty kick (not normal penalty kick)  12.4% (67)
c. No penalty     80.5% (434)*


12) How many time outs would you like to see per half? (548)

a. None  83.2%  (456)*
b. 1     12.4%   (68)
c. 2      4.4%   (24)


13) How would you like the overall game time to be kept? (547)

a. With a 60 min start/stop clock  5.7%  (31)
b. With a 90 min running clock, with the referee taking into account
   any long delays                94.3% (516)*


14) As soon as MLS starts, what should be the maximum number of
    foreign players in a team? (545)

a. None   3.3%  (18)
b. 1      0.2%   (1)
c. 2      4.0%  (22)
d. 3     20.0% (109)*
e. 4     42.4% (231)
f. More  30.1% (164)


15) If the maximum number of foreign players is to be changed from the
    maximum number set at the start of MLS, when should it take place?
    (536)

a. After 1 or 2 seasons   33.6% (180)
b. 3 or 4                 26.5% (142)
c. 4 or 5                 14.2%  (76)
d. More                    3.2%  (17)
e. Should not be changed  22.6% (121)


16) In the end, what should be the maximum number of foreign players
    in a team? (539)

a. None   2.8%   (15)
b. 1      0.9%    (5)
c. 2      8.5%   (46)
d. 3     31.5%  (170)*
e. 4     28.9%  (156)
f. More  27.3%  (147)


17) How important do you think the quality of the names of the MLS
    teams are? (547)

a. Important           41.7% (228)
b. Could be important  45.2% (247)
c. Not important       13.2%  (72)


18) Which naming style do you prefer? (550)

a. American style nicknames       12.7%  (70)
b. International style nicknames  28.4% (156)
c. I don't care, as long as they are good/aren't gimmicky  58.9% (324)


19) How important do you think the quality of the merchandise
    (eg. soccer shirts) sold by the teams is? (542)

a. Very      86.5% (469)
b. Not very  13.5%  (73)



YOUR BACKGROUND

20) Where is your country of nationality? (550)

a. Africa         0.2%    (1)
b. Latin America  3.6%   (20)
c. Asia           2.4%   (13)
d. Australasia      0%    (0)
e. Europe         8.5%   (47)
f. USA/Canada    85.1%  (468)
g. Other          0.2%    (1)


21) How old are you? (550)

a. Less than 11 years old  0.2%    (1)
b. 11-15                   3.5%   (19)
c. 16-20                  20.0%  (110)
d. 21-35                  54.4%  (299)
e. 36-50                  18.9%  (104)
f. Over 50                 3.1%   (17)


22) Are you female or male? (547)

a. Female  7.5%   (41)
b. Male   92.5%  (506)


23) Do you play soccer...? (547)

a. In a serious team         25.6%  (140)
b. In an organized recreational team  25.8%  (141)
c. Informally (eg. pickup)  32.0%  (175)
d. Not at all                16.6%   (91)


24) How often do you follow soccer in your country? (548)

a. Often      63.9%  (350)
b. Regularly  27.7%  (152)
c. Sometimes   8.4%   (46)


25) How often do you follow soccer in your continent (other than
    your country)? (547)

a. Often       35.5%  (194)
b. Regularly   25.0%  (137)
c. Sometimes   34.6%  (189)
d. Not at all   4.9%   (27)


26) Where is the country of nationality of the friend or relative who
    has had the most influence on you on soccer? (548)

a. Africa         1.5%    (8)
b. Latin America  7.7%   (42)
c. Asia           2.0%   (11)
d. Australasia      0%    (0)
e. Europe        29.6%  (162)
f. USA/Canada    44.2%  (242)
g. Other          1.1%    (6)
h. I have none   14.1%   (77)


27) Including this person, how many of your friends and relatives have
    a strong interest in home soccer and/or overseas soccer? (548)

a. None     1.3%    (7)
b. 1 or 2  11.3%   (62)
c. 3 or 4  14.8%   (81)
d. 5 or 6  13.7%   (75)
e. More    58.9%  (323)


28) What foreign or domestic club tournament do you enjoy the most and
    could be used by MLS as a tournament format? (Free form question)

England's FA Cup and European Champions League Cup were the most mentioned.
FA Cup was mentioned by about 100 people and the Champions League by about
60.  What follows is a list of other tournaments that people liked.  Each
was mentioned at least once.  In no particular order:

US Cup, US Open Cup, Parmalat Cup, Mexican Championship, English Premier
League, League Cup, World Cup, UEFA Cup, European Cup Winners' Cup,
the South American Libertadores Cup, Italy's Serie A, Germany's Bundesliga,
Copa America, Brazilian Championship, England's Umbro Cup tournament, NCAA,
USISL, NFL, Olympics, Marlboro Cup, NPSL, Major League Baseball, Spanish
Premier Division, Chilean Championship, Dallas Cup, Copa Italia, Dutch Cup,
MISL, Scotland's Premier Division, Japan's J-League, CONCACAF Cup, German
Cup and CISL.

A few other people used this free-form section to say their views on other
matters:

1) Having a separate league and play-off (knock-out) cup would give more
   incentive to the teams (eg. League and Cup double).
2) Every 5 min of OT take 1 player from each team off until 2v2 left.
3) Having a group round after the regular conference season is confusing
   and overly complicated.
4) Scoring systems (5/2/1 + goals but no more than 3)


FIFA Percentage
+---------------

This is calculated by calculating the percentage of people choosing the
choices marked * as opposed to the other choices in the same question.
The choices marked are mainly rules that are used, or WILL be used in
the near future, by most of the world's soccer federations.

FIFA percentage = 65%



Back to Chris Allen's "Shots at Goal" Page

Back to Chris Allen's Main Soccer Page