The Other Year 2000 Challenge: Six Billion Human Beings

Y6B. The Year of Six Billion. October 12, 1999 marks the day the world population reaches six billion. While people are busy debugging their computers for Y2K, there lurks a more important question than "Will the power go out on New Years?" It is the six-billion-person question: Can we feed, clothe, house, educate, employ and provide a meaningful and healthy life for six billion people while simultaneously protecting and restoring the natural systems and biodiversity upon which all life depends? What about 10 or 11 billion? Are we on the right course?

After decades of increasing food production, we now have declining per capita cropland area, irrigation water, and grain harvest, and 17% of the planet's soils have been severely degraded. Currently, 1.3 billion people have no access to clean water and 300 million people live in places with severe water shortages. Meanwhile the richest 20% of humanity consumes 86% of all goods and services, and the poorest fifth consumes just 1.3%. Burning of fossil fuels has quintupled since 1950, and climate change has begun. As a result of human activities, extinctions have accelerated to approximately 1,000 times the natural rate.

What are the limits? The answer to the six-billion-person question depends not only on the number of people, but also on the amount of resources we each consume and the waste we each produce. If everyone alive in the world today were to live like the average North American, we would need a total of three planet Earths to provide the necessary resources and waste sinks. Wasteful consumption and consumption disparities are as much a part of the 21st century carrying capacity dilemma as is population size. We have to deal with both. Both are necessary; neither alone is sufficient. And neither one is receiving enough attention.

On the population side of the equation, growth has slowed, fertility has fallen and contraceptive use has risen dramatically. These changes have resulted in part from programs dedicated to reducing infant mortality, improving maternal and child health, increasing girls' education and women's economic opportunity, and improving access to family planning information and other reproductive health services. Additional population growth is ensured, however, because of past rapid growth. One billion young people are now entering their reproductive years. The world population continues to grow by 78 million per year, and the UN projects that another 4 or 5 billion may be added before the population stabilizes towards the end of the next century.

This year's 6 billion is no magic number, but it should give us pause for reflection on the state of the world, on how we define progress, and on what we want for the 21st century. And as we debate the US federal budget, we should think about what kinds of investments will generate the greatest dividends for future generations. Funding for comprehensive population programs, and for reducing wasteful consumption, maybe the best and the cheapest insurance policy we have for the billions of children and other creatures who will inhabit the Earth after us.

For more information about population, or to connect with a local population group, contact Annie Faulkner, New England Coalition for Sustainable Population, at PO Box 194, Sullivan, NH 03445, tel: 603-847-9798, or e-mail: d9cat@cheshire.net.

Sierra Club's Global Population Stabilization Campaign can be reached by contacting Jennifer Kurz at 202.547.1141 or at jennifer.kurz@sierraclub.org. Check out their webpage at http://www.sierraclub.org/population/.