(originally posted as a 2 parter on http://www.oregonlive.com/forums/gsoccer)

...12 of 13 is a function of the first 3 of 4 more than it is of potential recruiting...

When the 3a(2a,1a) title first became available, the PDX metro area had a significant advantage over the rest of the state in terms of general player pool / club experience / etc... During that stretch, Catlin superiority was a function of the talent base and Gant's coaching.

The remaining 9 of 9 has INCLUDED talent base and Gant's coaching, but has also included one other VERY key component - an opponent's doubt in themselves.

When they were 3 of 4, WE played them in the semis. We scored first (something that hadn't happened to CG in a while), and yet the goal scorer came to the sideline proclaiming "we can't beat these guys." She had skipped joining the rest of the team in scouting them the Saturday before (we'd beaten La Salle early in the day and decided to stay in town to watch Catlin v Philo). Her assertions started at the training on Monday and continued through the match, until despite a lead and their own eyes three days earlier, our team was convinced of the inevitability of a Catlin juggernaut. We fell 1-3, due largely to our failure to mark Goodling at two key moments. Our league champ, Henley fell in the final 0-5, conceding as many goals in that match as they had over the entire remainder of the season.

La Salle in '96 talked prior to the quarters about the "the real final" being the semi between them and Catlin, as the other bracket wouldn't produce a viable foe. After losing their quarterfinal to Phoenix, the Falcons returned in '97 to get the "real" final v Catlin. They fell in the championship match 0-8.

Now CG was 5 of 6 and the last two foes had not just fallen, they'd be pummeled. The mystique built.

Wilsonville in '98 maybe really could have beaten them. With Seeley, a DI prospect in the goal... with some very good talent spread across the pitch... But that match (played in Lake Tualitin) again went the Eagles way on a lone goal and the words, "see, they can even find a way when the opponent is better" started to be murmured... Gant was a wizard, they always peak at the right time, etc...

2-0 over Marist in '99, 4-0 over La Salle in '00 and the relentless march of preparation over psychological trembling continued. Teams were trending BETTER in semifinals then in finals.

Blanchet and Marist were again outmatched in '01 and '02 by matching 2-0 margins. Having played against and watched these teams, I was telling myself "the gap is NOT large... the top 8 or 10 are all in play," yet despite seeming equity (and sometimes even deficit) in talent, the Eagles were absolutely dominant in Finals. Watching those games, I was not seeing near equals, I was seeing composure vs fluster.

Stepping foot on the pitch in a final vs. Catlin is preceded ALWAYS by repetition of the phrase, "They've only lost in this game once in X years." and regardless of that particular season being molehill or mountain, guess which it becomes in the mind of the Eagles' foe?

In 2003, they again trailed in a final - something that had not happened in a long time. I suspect if you tracked how often Catlin has trailed in post season play AT ALL, you'd find a very small number. But with a lead, what did Sherwood do? I suspect they outthought themselves - Irish pulled back to protect the middle of the park, not left up top to continue to threaten. What does the move do in the players’ minds? "Man, they could still find a way to beat us..." which quickly becomes "They WILL find a way to beat you." Self-fulfilling prophecies are like that.

So come into 2004. Yeah, Oregon Episcopal worked hard. Do they deserve something? poppycock. No more than Glide or Riverside does - do you think they didn't work hard? Do they come into the match understanding deep within themselves that this is a possibility? After all, they've bested Catlin twice already this season...

The first minutes looked like an OES success was not only possible, but likely. Tsao and Eyler were moving into the attack, with a ball at their feet and threatening... but nothing was coming of it... no goals, not even any serious "make the GK doubt her defenders" moments.

And then it turned. And Catlin asserted themselves. And scored.

And I am sorry, but two of the three goals in the match were soft. They were goals of doubt. Balls floating high and long inside the 6 as GKs stood anchored on their lines awaiting the chance that someone other than a team mate would get first touch. That space is OWNED by the one in the weird shirt, but it wasn't in this match on either end...

So a ball is in the net early... and the match continues. And yes, OES worked hard. But with effort and urgency do not always come success. There was far too much reliance on getting the ball forward to Tsao (not that I blame them, she's really good). Lack of variety made the Eagles job that much easier.

The equalizer came with under 6 to play (again on a ball that an attacker had no business touching, but that aside) and OES found itself in the most precarious position a team can be in on a soccer pitch: playing immediately after a goal has scored. Something like 70% of goals come within 2 minutes of other goals. Sure enough, 48 seconds later, the ball is back into the net at the other end.

Was there an emotional lapse? a "we scored, just let us get to overtime" thing going in minds that caught a series of Aardvarks flatfooted as Gabbert made her run? Warrington, good or bad, seasoned or green, cannot be faulted for conceding a goal from about 8 feet away, as defenders part before the oncoming attack and the shot goes low, kissing the post as it passes by.

15 shots were taken in the match. 1 save was recorded (Ferguson's v Tsao in the opening minutes, struck on a hard cut, from 20ish out) The team that took care of their opportunities WAS going to win this game. By my count, 4 balls were on frame in the match, 3 went in.

It wasn't working hard. It was believing it could be done. Catlin was vulnerable this season, and OES was capable of beating them. But they didn't. And neither did Sherwood, or Marist, or North Valley.

So now across the state coaches and players are muttering to themselves "maybe next year?" Their first mistake with that? The word "maybe." Believe or believe not. Do or do not.

If you look for excuses (they recruit, they didn't deserve it, etc…) you are giving yourself permission to, and predisposing yourself to failure.

Good Season, Aardvarks!

Congratulations, Eagles!

We WILL see you both again.