FIVE THINGS I THINK I THINK

Edition #23

January 1, 2008

Here is the latest installment of “I Think I Think.”

I think…

1) I think I'll start by saying the gains achieved by General Petreaus are spectacular and important. As noted even by one of the most liberal minded print media sources, the LA Times, admitting there is positive change in Iraq :

Pentagon Reports Security Gains In Iraq - Peter Spiegel and Julian E. Barnes, Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON -- Security in Iraq has improved consistently and dramatically in nearly every major category over the last three months, the most sustained period of such gains in nearly two years, according to the first Pentagon report to attempt to quantify recent progress in detail.

However, the report also makes it clear that progress could easily be lost unless improvements are made quickly in Iraq 's economy and its unreliable central government, and it illustrates how dependent the advances are on restraint by still-active militant groups.

In addition, Iraq's domestic security forces remain a source of concern, with their ability to secure their own country constrained by deficiencies in logistics and a shortage in command officer ranks that "will take years" to rebuild, the report says.

The report, issued Tuesday, is one of a series of quarterly reports to Congress that the Pentagon has been required to submit for two years. In the past, the evaluations have painted grim pictures of a slide into chaos.

Even the previous two reports, compiled in the midst of the Bush administration's troop buildup, described Iraq as consumed by violence, with attacks decreasing in some areas flooded by newly arriving forces only to increase in other regions.

The new study is the first to report broad reductions in violence in multiple categories, reflecting declines in civilian deaths, attacks on U.S. forces and suicide bombings.

"Improved security is beginning to achieve momentum that, if maintained, may lead to significant stability," the report says.

Dramatic gains continued to occur in the western province of Anbar , once the most violent part of Iraq , which now accounts for less than 6% of all attacks.

Baghdad , which has replaced Anbar as Iraq 's most violent province, experienced more than 25 attacks per day in the three months that ended in November. But that was down 53% from the summer, the report says.

The provinces just north of Baghdad and Anbar have shown the least progress, as Sunni Arab insurgents move their bases north. In Nineveh province and its capital, Mosul , violence remained above 2006 levels.
The report argues that the gains are not irreversible, and it casts a pessimistic light on the ability of the central government to meet many of the legislative goals set by U.S. officials. The report calls the lack of progress disappointing and says failures are hindering reconciliation between warring sects within Iraq .

"Although security gains . . . have had a substantial effect, more needs to be done to foster national 'top-down' reconciliation to sustain these gains," the report says.

The only concern I have is sustaining the success. That the military used the increase in forces to tip the security situation in favor of the U.S. strategic plan is step one. Step two has to be the establishment of efficacy for local governance to achieve step three which is the “top-down” national political reconciliation. I fear for the realization and success of step two because my sources reporting to me do not state that local governance through democratic means is being achieved. In fact they report that it's not being pursued. The “Tribal Awakening” is being touted as the local governance efficacy. This is not enough and will necessarily short circuit step three. We shall see… “The Mahalla Plan for Victory” is the solution to win in Iraq. Will any Iraq War strategist or American politician listen? Fred Kagan, General Jack Keane, Senator John McCain???? Hello????

2) I think this might be an insightful revelation…former Army Major General, John Batiste, took a position on the Board of Votevets.org, an anti-war organization supported and funded by Moveon.org, headed by the intrepid John Soltz (an Iraq War vet) after he (MG Batiste) retired from the Army (Batiste commanded the Big Red One in Iraq). As ‘Mr.' Batiste, he became a committed supporter of the Democratic Party position to “get out of Iraq .” He made a political TV Commercial advocating against the war and challenging the President on his policy. Here is that commercial.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=aMPIi03wSfY

In December 2007 he had this to say in an Op-Ed piece.

Getting Beyond Stalemate to Win a War

By John Batiste and Pete Hegseth

Saturday, December 8, 2007 ; Page A17

Congress has been entangled in a war-funding debate that pits war "supporters" against antiwar "defeatists." With all sides seemingly entrenched, a stalemate looms. The Pentagon , meanwhile, will soon begin stripping money from its training budget to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan .

Our military men and women deserve better than partisan politics; they deserve honest assessments of our nation's performance in fighting the Long War.

We are veterans of the Iraq war with vastly different experiences. Both of us commanded troops in Iraq . We, too, held seemingly entrenched, and incompatible, views upon our return. One of us spoke out against mismanagement of the war -- failed leadership, lack of strategy and misdirection. The other championed the cause of successfully completing our mission.

Our perspectives were different, yet not as stark as the "outspoken general" and "stay-the-course supporter" labels we received. Such labels are oversimplified and inaccurate, and we are united behind a greater purpose.

It's time to discuss the way forward rather than prosecute the past. Congress must do the same, for our nation and the troops.

Overall, this will require learning from our strategic blunders, acknowledging successes achieved by our courageous military and forging a bold path. We believe America can and must rally around five fundamental tenets:

First, the United States must be successful in the fight against worldwide Islamic extremism. We have seen this ruthless enemy firsthand, and its global ambitions are undeniable. This struggle, the Long War, will probably take decades to prosecute. Failure is not an option.

Second, whether or not we like it, Iraq is central to that fight. We cannot walk away from our strategic interests in the region. Iraq cannot become a staging ground for Islamic extremism or be dominated by other powers in the region, such as Iran and Syria . A premature or precipitous withdrawal from Iraq , without the requisite stability and security, is likely to cause the violence there -- which has decreased substantially but is still present -- to cascade into an even larger humanitarian crisis.

Third, the counterinsurgency campaign led by Gen. David Petraeus is the correct approach in Iraq . It is showing promise of success and, if continued, will provide the Iraqi government the opportunities it desperately needs to stabilize its country. Ultimately, however, these military gains must be cemented with regional and global diplomacy, political reconciliation, and economic recovery -- tools yet sufficiently utilized. Today's tactical gains in Iraq -- while a necessary pre-condition for political reconciliation -- will crumble without a deliberate and comprehensive strategy.

Fourth, our strategy in fighting the Long War must address Iran . Much has been made this week of the intelligence judgments that Iran has stopped its weapons program. No matter what, Iran must not be permitted to become a nuclear power. All options should be exhausted before we use military force, but force, nonetheless, should never be off the table. Diplomatic efforts -- from a position of strength, both regionally and globally -- must be used to engage our friends and coerce our enemies to apply pressure on the Iranian regime.

Fifth, our military capabilities need to match our national strategy. Our military is stretched thin and will be hard-pressed to maintain its current cycle of deployments. At this critical juncture, we cannot afford to be weak. Numbers and capacity matter.

After the Sept. 11, 2001 , attacks, America was not mobilized for the Long War. This was an opportunity lost, but it is not too late. Many Americans are frustrated by the war effort, the burden of which has been shouldered by less than one percent of our citizenry. Our country is accustomed to winning. We deserve a comprehensive strategy that is focused on victory and guided by decisive leadership. America must succeed in Iraq and Afghanistan , but we also cannot focus too narrowly on those conflicts. We need a regional and global strategy to defeat worldwide Islamic extremism to ensure a safer world today and for future generations.

The day after his famous Pearl Harbor speech, President Franklin D. Roosevelt again addressed the nation. "I was about to add that ahead there lies sacrifice for all of us," he said. "But it is not correct to use that word. The United States does not consider it a sacrifice to do all one can, to give one's best to our nation, when the nation is fighting for its existence and its future life." His words inspired the "Greatest Generation," and they should inspire us again today.

Americans must mobilize for the Long War -- bolster our strained military, galvanize industry to supply troops with what they need right now and fund the strategy with long-term solutions. We have no doubt that Americans will rally behind a call to arms.

America 's veterans -- young and old -- are resolved to support and defend the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. This commitment, and nothing less, should compel us to stand together, in and out of uniform. Would that Congress finds the courage to bury its pride and do the same.

AAAAAHHHH, a change of heart Mr. Batiste?

3) I think everyone should see this letter from General Petreaus recently issued to the troops in his command in Iraq .

General David Petraeus's End Of Year Letter To The Troops

"A Great Deal Has Been Achieved In 2007"

28 December 2007

Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines, Coast Guardsmen, and Civilians of Multi-National Force-Iraq:

As 2007 draws to a close, you should look back with pride on what you, your fellow troopers, our Iraqi partners, and Iraqi Coalition civilians have achieved in 2007. A year ago, Iraq was racked by horrific violence and on the brink of civil war. Now, levels of violence and civilians and military casualties are significantly reduced and hope has been rekindled in many Iraqi communities. To be sure, the progress is reversible and there is much more to be done. Nonetheless, the hard-fought accomplishments of 2007 have been substantial, and I want to thank each of you for the contributions you made to them.

In response to the challenges that faced Iraq a year ago, we and our Iraqi partners adopted a new approach. We increased our focus on securing the Iraqi people and, in some cases, delayed transition of tasks to Iraqi forces. Additional U.S. and Georgian forces were deployed to theater, the tours of U.S. units were extended, and Iraqi forces conducted a surge of their own, generating well over 100,000 more Iraqi police and soldiers during the year so that they, too, had additional forces to execute the new approach. In places like Ramadi, Baqubah, Arab Jabour, and Baghdad , you and our Iraqi brothers fought—often house by house, block by block, and neighborhood by neighborhood—to wrest sanctuaries away from Al Qaeda-Iraq, to disrupt extremist militia elements, and to rid the streets of mafia-like criminals. Having cleared areas, you worked with Iraqis to retain them—establishing outposts in the areas we were securing, developing Iraqi Security Forces, and empowering locals to help our efforts. This approach has not been easy. It has required steadfastness in the conduct of tough offensive operations, creative solutions to the myriad problems on the ground, and persistence over the course of many months and during countless trying situations. Through it all, you have proven equal to every task, continually demonstrating an impressive ability to conduct combat and stability operations in an exceedingly complex environment.

Your accomplishments have given the Iraqi people new confidence and prompted many citizens to reject terror and confront those who practice it. As the months passed in 2007, in fact, the tribal awakening that began in Al Anbar Province spread to other parts of the country. Emboldened by improving security and tired of indiscriminate violence, extremist ideology, oppressive practices, and criminal activity, Iraqis increasingly rejected Al Qaeda-Iraq and rogue militia elements. Over time, the desire of Iraqis to contribute to their own security has manifested itself in citizens volunteering for the police, the Army, and concerned local citizen programs. It has been reflected in citizens providing information that has helped us find far more than double the number of arms and weapons caches we found last year. And it has been apparent in Iraqi communities now supporting their local security forces.

As a result of your hard work and that of our Iraqi comrades-in-arms—and with the support of the local populace in many areas—we have seen significant improvements in the security situation. The number of attacks per week is down some 60 percent from a peak in June of this year to a level last seen consistently in the early summer of 2005. With fewer attacks, we are also seeing significantly reduced loss of life. The number of civilian deaths is down by some 75 percent since its height a year ago, dropping to a level not seen since the beginning of 2006. And the number of Coalition losses is down substantially as well. We remain mindful that the past year's progress has been purchased through the sacrifice and selfless service of all those involved and that the new Iraq must still contend with innumerable enemies and obstacles. Al Qaeda-Iraq has been significantly degraded, but it remains capable of horrific bombings. Militia extremists have been disrupted, but they retain influence in many areas. Criminals have been apprehended, but far too many still roam Iraqi streets and intimidate local citizens and Iraqi officials. We and our Iraqi partners will have to deal with each of these challenges in the New Year to keep the situation headed in the right direction.

While the progress in a number of areas is fragile, the security improvements have significantly changed the situation in many parts of Iraq . It is now imperative that we take advantage of these improvements by looking beyond the security arena and helping Iraqi military and political leaders as they develop solutions in other areas as well, solutions they can sustain over time. At the tactical level, this means an increasing focus on helping not just Iraqi Security Forces—with whom we must partner in all that we do—but also helping Iraqi governmental organizations as they endeavor to restore basic services, to create employment opportunities, to revitalize local markets, to refurbish schools, to spur local economic activity, and to keep locals involved in contributing to local security. We will have to do all of this, of course, while continuing to draw down our forces, thinning our presence, and gradually handing over responsibilities to our Iraqi partners. Meanwhile, at the national level, we will focus on helping the Iraqi Government integrate local volunteers into the Iraqi Security Forces and other employment, develop greater ministerial capacity and capability, aid displaced persons as they return, and, most importantly, take the all-important political and economic actions needed to exploit the opportunity provided by the gains in the security arena.

The pace of progress on important political actions to this point has been slower than Iraqi leaders had hoped. Still, there have been some important steps taken in recent months. Iraq 's leaders reached agreement on the Declaration of Principles for Friendship and Cooperation with the United States , which lays the groundwork for an enduring relationship between our nations. The United Nations Security Council approved Iraq 's request for a final renewal of the resolution that authorizes the Coalition to operate in Iraq . Iraq 's leaders passed an important Pension Law that not only extends retirement benefits to Iraqis previously left out but also represents the first of what we hope will be additional measures fostering national reconciliation. And Iraq's leaders have debated at length a second reconciliation-related measure, the Accountability and Justice Bill (the de-Ba'athification Reform Law), as well as the 2008 National Budget, both which likely will be brought up for a vote in early 2008. Even so, all Iraqi participants recognize that much more must be done politically to put their country on an irreversible trajectory to national reconciliation and sustainable economic development. We will, needless to say, work closely with our Embassy teammates to support the Iraq Government as it strives to take advantage of the improved security environment by pursing political and economic progress.

The New Year will bring many changes. Substantial force rotations and adjustments already underway will continue. One Army brigade combat team and a Marine Expeditionary Unit have already redeployed without replacement. In the coming months, four additional brigades and two Marine battalions will follow suit. Throughout that time, we will continue to adapt to the security situation as it evolves. And in the midst of all the changes, we and our Iraqi partners will strive to maintain the momentum, to press the fight, and to pursue Iraq 's enemies relentlessly. Solutions to many of the tough problems will continue to be found at your level, together with local Iraqi leaders and with your Iraqi Security Force partners, in company and battalion areas of operation and in individual neighborhoods an towns. As you and your Iraqi partners turn concepts into reality, additional progress will emerge slowly and fitfully. Over time, we will gradually see fewer bad days and accumulate more good days, good weeks, and good months.

The way ahead will not be easy. Inevitably, there will be more tough days and tough weeks. Unforeseen challenges will emerge. And success will require continued hard work, commitment, and initiative from all involved. As we look to the future, however, we should remember how far we have come in the past year. Thanks to the tireless efforts and courageous actions of the Iraqi people, Iraq 's political and military leaders, the Iraqi Security Forces, and each of you, a great deal has been achieved in 2007. Thus, as we enter a new year, we and our Iraqi partners will have important accomplishments and a newfound sense of hope on which we can build.

As always, all or your leaders, our fellow citizens back home, and I deeply appreciate the dedication, professionalism, commitment, and courage you display on a daily basis. It remains the greatest of honors to serve with each of you in this critical endeavor.

Sincerely,

David H. Petraeus

General, United State Army

Commanding

This, from a man that Moveon.org says “Betrayed Us?” And the front runners from the Democratic Party pursuing the Party presidential nomination support Moveon.org not the General. Can it be any clearer what is at stake?

4) I think I can't leave Lieutenant General Sanchez alone and allow him to hook up with the Democratic Party and then duplicitously state that the Iraq War is a failure using obfuscating language…Take a listen to his radio address.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=gS-VFVmh0PE

A) Note, Mr. Sanchez that you are speaking as a Democrat. You may choose to claim bi-partisanship but the label under your V Corps Command photo displayed on YouTube.com says “…Democratic Radio Address.” Please, sir, embrace what you have chosen to become, a partisan against the war in Iraq.

B) Your arguments are sound and worthy, but your judgment is poor. Here's why. You know, as a former general, that you change the system from within, not without. A spokesman has almost no power. Unless you can speak with charisma and bring large electorate support, your ‘military speak' has a maximum effective range of zero meters. The civilian electorate is not a formation of soldiers standing to listen as ordered by the brass, loosen up for God's sake. You have to be persuasive, you are not. If you are going to be a politician, run for office and win an election. Stumping makes you look undignified. Get in the arena or “…fade away.”

C) Lastly, for those who pay attention to the General now turned Democratic Party spokesman, explain to me what General Petreaus is doing right that you and General Casey could not get right? Is it just more troops? Is it better leadership? Is it better generalship? Is it a more experienced Army and USMC? Is it an administration that applied lessons learned over time? Is it a change in the Iraqi people? Or is it all the things that have occurred since March 2003 thus taking us ever closer to our strategic objective?

We can and will win in Iraq. Iraqis will have freedom and self determination. I suggest you focus your effort on advising Democrat politicians holding elected office on how to handle the regeneration of America's land component forces after the victory in Iraq and shaping the force to deal with the Global War on Terror that will continue beyond Iraq. Don't stake your future on a lost political cause to help the Democrats seize the White House. Be a winner, Mr. Sanchez. Be a leader for the future and not a naysayer for the past.

5) I think this story by Ralph Peters interviewing wounded American soldiers and marines from Iraq and Afghanistan should serve as a call to action for any who want to help. Here's an opportunity, read on...

SPLENDID VALOR

HEROES NEED OUR SUPPORT

December 14, 2007 -- FORT SAM HOUSTON,

SAN ANTONIO

AS I wrap up a week of columns dedicated to our wounded veterans, I have one great regret: We could only tell a limited number of stories in these pages, but every one of our wounded warriors deserves to have his or her tale told.

The soldiers and Marines who took a break from their therapy sessions to talk to The Post last week all have compelling histories; here are sketches of just a few more:

Airborne Infantryman Staff Sgt. Nick McCoy was on patrol in Iskandariyah when a roadside bomb took off his legs and left him with severe upper-body injuries. A rigorous soldier who took pride in his physical fitness, he's seen his life change profoundly.

But Nick just won't quit. The Mt. Penn , Pa. , native is working on a book with his dad, exploring the personal side of the war from Iraq and from the home front. He's thinking about a journalism degree, too. (I warned him it means a vow of poverty.)

During her second tour in Iraq , Sgt. Lilina Benning was driving her sergeant-major on the "safe" circular road at Camp Victory outside of Baghdad . A random terrorist rocket hit her SUV. Lilina lost her foot, but not her dedication to the Army. She's determined to remain on active duty. Oh, and her brother's in Iraq right now - on his second tour.

On the day I met Lilina, she was ecstatic - she'd just left her wheelchair and walked from the main hospital to the rehab center with only a cane.

Army medic Spec. Greg Dotson was on a bomb-clearing patrol north of Baqubah when an improvised explosive device got the drop on the convoy. He'll never be able to serve as a combat medic again, but he'd like to share his battlefield expertise by teaching at the Army's school for medics at Ft. Sam Houston. If that doesn't work out, Greg's going to finish college, teach school - and coach basketball.

These men and women aren't going to be burdens on their communities. They're going to become community leaders.

Then there's Capt. Jeromie Smith, a former patient himself and now the company commander responsible for the wounded warriors and military staff at the Center for the Intrepid. He shepherds the newly wounded through phases of anger and depression, helping them form a new brotherhood among themselves.

Speaking of the men and women in his care, Capt. Smith summed up everything this week's columns have been about: "They don't want our pity - they want our respect . And they've earned it."

There are so many more: NYPD and National Guard member Spec. Alexander Marner, an immigrant from Ukraine (and a veteran of the old Soviet Air Force) suffered a debilitating illness in Kuwait. He had to undergo a series of complex operations on his arms and legs. Now he's anxious to get back to the NYPD after New Year's.

On a "routine" supply run in Baghdad , West Point grad Capt. Christian Fierro was shot - by a medic who failed to clear her weapon properly. The round tore into his ankle and foot, shredding the artery, severing his Achilles tendon, and ripping out a chunk of meat and bone "the size of a softball."

The new medic panicked. Capt. Fierro credits his gunner with saving his life.

After more than a dozen surgeries to save his foot, Chris still may lose it. But he's determined to remain in the Army, even if he has to leave his beloved Field Artillery and take a desk job. He just wants to stay in uniform.

WE could've run weeks of columns about these magnificent young men and women. But we can all be proud of two things: these selfless wounded warriors themselves - and the generosity of Post readers, who've poured in donations to help make the new Warrior and Family Support Center a reality.

That said, more money needs to be raised. If you haven't given, please consider a donation (see the box at left for how-to details).

Let me tell you a bit more about the organization dedicated to building this new refuge for the gravely wounded and their families. (I refuse to use the word "charity" where these heroes are concerned - helping disabled veterans is our duty .)

In this age of "nonprofit" scams and scoundrel CEOs, you have a right to know where your contributions will go. Well, out of every dollar you donate to this cause, 97.3 cents goes directly to the construction of the new center and our veterans. I doubt that even my lifelong favorite charity, the Salvation Army, can meet that 2.7 percent standard for administrative overhead.

How do those citizen-volunteers down in San Antonio do it? By being citizen-volunteers. The closest thing the effort has to a full-time employee is the woman (paid at an hourly rate) who does the accounting. No member of the oversight board receives a cent; there's no six-figure CEO flying around in a personal jet and throwing lavish parties. In fact, there's no CEO at all - just volunteers who want to help our troops.

(Speaking of volunteers, I have to close this series on a personal note - thanking one of them in particular. Eliza Sonneland, a recently retired Alamo-city talk-show host and an early advocate for this project, told me to stop blathering, get off my butt, come down to San Antonio and help. You were right, Eliza. Thanks. And God bless you.)

Finally, I have to confess that I expected to have a depressing time interviewing veterans who'd suffered massive burns and the loss of multiple limbs. I was wrong. Every single soldier and Marine I met inspired me with his or her determination, valor and positive outlook. Their courage is immeasurable - and beautiful.

Those wounded warriors are too humble and decent to ask us for one damned thing. But they need our help. Let's not leave them behind this holiday season.

WHAT YOU CAN DO

You can donate to the Warrior and Family Support Center project via credit card at ReturningHeroesHome.org or by phone at 1-888-343-HERO.

To give by mail, send your donations to:

Returning Heroes Home

P.O. Box 202194

Dallas , TX 75320-2194

Checks should be made out to Returning Heroes Home, Inc. This is a nonprofit 501c3 endeavor; all donations are tax-deductible.

All contributions, in any amount, will help our wounded warriors. Please give to those who gave so much. - RP

Again, here's your chance to act...will you take it?