July 29, 2002
Trade Deadline Prompts Fantasy Swap Meet Actitivy
Trade talks always dominate the baseball headlines in
the
second half of July -- and what happens in "real"
baseball has
a domino effect in the fantasy world, as teams make
category-based moves designed to strengthen a
potential
stretch run. I'm currently sitting in second place in
an
extremely competitive AL-only league -- I've learned
to accept
the fact that I'm always sitting in second place,
especially
on the day after the season ends -- and have five
trade
proposals on the board right now. Judging by the
increased
traffic evident in ESPN.com's "Trades Accepted"
reports, that
seems to be the case everywhere. Let's take a look at
some
trends.
Assessing Relative Value
Traditionally, writers suggest that being traded to
the
Yankees artificially increases a player's perceived
value;
with the team's recent acquisitions of Jeff Weaver
and Raul
Mondesi, we can take that theory for a kind of
test-drive. For
instance, since donning pinstripes Mondesi has been
swapped
even up twice for Bobby Abreu and once for J.D. Drew,
who are
significantly more valuable fantasy players; for a
stud
starter (Matt Morris); and twice for productive
closers (Mike
Williams and Jason Isringhausen). But these anomalies
aside,
for the most part Mondesi has been traded for
comparable
players like Jermaine Dye, Hideo Nomo and Randy Winn.
Whither Weaver?
The Yankees' trade for Jeff Weaver brought much more
activity
on the fantasy front, and the focus has been on
closers, as
saves become an ever more valuable commodity down the
stretch.
Weaver has, oddly enough, been dealt even up for both
Mariano
Rivera and for Mike Stanton, but also for a gamut of
relievers
ranging from Scott Stewart and Antonio Alfonseca to
Billy
Wagner, Danny Graves, and Isringhausen. And-- I am
not making
this up -- proving once and for all that some leagues
collapse
by mid-season, Weaver has also been dealt for
29-year-old RHP
Chris Seelbach, who is having an excellent year for
the Nippon
Ham Fighters.
Mo Better Trades?
Speaking of Rivera, trade activity around the future
Hall of
Famer actually seems to be UP since his injury
questions
arose; one recent e-mail query asked if Odalis Perez
was too
much to offer for the Yankee closer, showing how much
fortunes
can change in a few months. Rivera has been swapped
one-for-one recently to acquire players like Rafael
Furcal
(someone needed steals, obviously), Preston Wilson,
and Aaron
Boone. (That's right -- Aaron, not Bret). But he's
also
brought Jeff Kent, Bartolo Colon, Al Leiter, Miguel
Tejada,
Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus. If you can play up
Rivera's
injury and acquire him at the value level suggested
here ...
Probable Starters
7/29: Hernandez @ TEX (Rogers)
7/30: Wells @ TEX (Myette)
7/31: Mussina @ TEX (Bell)
8/1: Weaver @ ANA (Washburn)
8/2: Pettitte @ ANA (Appier)
|
A Few More Notes on Value
Andy Pettitte and David Wells have been traded for
each other
twice, and each has been traded for LaTroy Hawkins,
but Wells
(John Smoltz, Billy Koch, Scott Rolen) has tended to
bring
higher returns than Pettitte (Juan Encarnacion, a
struggling
Roberto Alomar). Use that to your advantage; Pettitte
will
outpitch Wells the rest of the way ... Alfonso
Soriano's
relative value has been established as two closers
(Ugueth
Urbina and Kelvim Escobar ; Jose Mesa and Kelvim
Escobar), or
a stud starter and starting infielder (Greg Maddux
and Jose
Vidro; Derek Lowe and Robin Ventura). The only
one-for-one
deal involving Soriano brought back Pedro Martinez.
Nice.
Elliptical Information ...
Speaking of trades, ignore those Duque to Montreal
rumors ...
Re-activated Sterling Hitchcock has no fantasy value,
but
should put to rest the Dan Plesac talk ... Robin
Ventura's
16th career grand slam Sunday was career homer #268;
the nine
other players who have hit that many slams or more
all have at
least 442 career shots ... Roger Clemens may make
another
rehab start, and won't be rushed back; he felt no
pain
throwing 92 pitches for Tampa Saturday ... When
Rocket does
return, it could mean a trip to the pen for Weaver
(8.00 ERA
as a Yankee), but a hint for keeper leagues: his
value will
never be lower. Go get him.
A Word of Thanks
Please permit a brief personal interlude: I'd like to
take a
moment to thank the many readers who have taken the
time to
send questions, comments -- and, yes, plenty of
criticisms --
over the past three years. This is the 100th column
I've
posted for ESPN.com Fantasy Baseball since the outset
of the
2000 season, and it's a privilege to know my
ramblings on all
things Rangers and Yankees have been read nearly a
quarter of
a million times ... As always, these columns are
updated
weekly or as breaking news warrants; the entire list
of 100 is
archived at
http://dellepro.dellhost.com/doherty/sports/ESPN/.
Further questions and comments: RotoYanks@yahoo.com.