February 24, 2003
Foreign Correspondence: Matsui, Contreras?
The most popular fantasy-related questions about the 2003
Yankees? That's easy -- everyone wants to know where to draft
or what to bid on imports Hideki Matsui and Jose Contreras.
Last week, reader Jeff even managed to tie them together with
what may be the most difficult e-mail question ever sent to a
correspondent: "Someone has offered me Contreras for Matsui.
Should I take Contreras or keep Matsui?" Given that we
literally know nothing about how either will perform in the
Apple-tinted spotlight, the best answer might be, "Um, I
accidentally hit the delete key on your e-mail ..."
The "Other" Hideki
Sure, Matsui has a cool reptilian nickname ("Godzilla") and
was a major star in Japan; but the last Hideki (Irabu) who
came to the Bronx was known as "the Japanese Nolan Ryan" and
ended up with a less-flattering reptilian nickname ("fat,
expletive toad") ... I've been promoting the idea that any
Yankee fan -- if not overly optimistic fantasy GM -- should be
thrilled with .280/25/90 production from Matsui. That seems to
hold up in the ESPN Mock Draft, where 'Zilla goes #107 overall
in Round #9, a round where the other three OF taken averaged
.297/27/88 in 2002.
Matsui was taken one pick ahead of teammate Roger Clemens in
the ESPN Mock exercise, and earned an overall ranking of #35
among OF. However, in AL-only leagues where the OF pool is
much shallower, Matsui is at #12 and may be worth the earlier
gamble. Bernie Williams, by comparison, is ranked #22 overall
but is the #7 AL OF. Much of this is projection, of course,
and it does seem odd that Matsui is ranked one slot ahead of
potential breakout star Vernon Wells. However, with a
projected auction value of $14, once Magglio Ordonez, Carlos
Beltran, Manny Ramirez, Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson, Ichiro
and Wells are gone in AL leagues, it's time to think about
Matsui.
Jose, Can You See From The Bullpen?
Okay, nobody knows how old Jose Contreras really is. That
might matter if you're in a keeper league. But in focusing on
2003, the important note is that he will NOT start the season
in the Yankee rotation. That doesn't keep the latest Cuban
refugee in pinstripes out of ESPN's rankings for starting
pitchers, where he is projected into the #48 spot overall, or
#21 in AL-only leagues, at an auction value of $8. He will
almost certainly go higher than that in most drafts and
auctions, and the guess here is to let someone else gamble --
unless you're in a league that defines roster spots for SP vs.
RP and, like Joe Torre, can stash him in your bullpen.
Probable Starters
Mussina (#12 MLB, #6 AL)
Clemens (#28 MLB, #13 AL)
Wells (#39 MLB, #16 AL)
Pettitte (#40 MLB, #17 AL)
Contreras (#48, #21); Weaver (#52, #23)
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Drafted in Round 9 (#179 overall, one spot ahead of Mike
Hampton) in the ESPN Mock, compared to the five who are
projected to actually be in the rotation to start the season,
Contreras is ranked quite high. Mike Mussina is at #12 among
SP (#6 in the AL), Clemens at #28 (13), David Wells at #39
(16), Andy Pettitte at #40 (17) and Jeff Weaver at #52 (23)
... hold it right there. Jeff Weaver is ranked BELOW
Contreras? If you can sell someone in your league on the idea
of overpaying for an unproven Contreras while Weaver is still
on the board, those are the kinds of things that win you a
Yoo-Hoo shower.
All's Well That Ends Wells?
David Wells, who has "fantasy bust" written all over him after
a 19-win 2002, recently revealed that he had a 1996 on-field
heart incident after using a product containing ephedrine,
which recently contributed to the death of Orioles rookie
Steve Bechler. Even though Wells apparently flatlined during
the '96 incident, he considers ephedrine to be safe and uses
it "only when he thinks he needs it," according to reports. Is
anyone surprised? That's also been Boomer's approach to
alcohol use ... Wells says he will consider pitching next year
rather than retiring after 2003. Let's see him get through '03
first.
Elliptical Information ...
Nick Johnson's left wrist injury, which caused him to miss a
month in 2002, has flared up. After posting a .749 OPS in 129
games as a 23-year-old rookie, even when healthy, Johnson will
battle for playing time this season ... Talk baseball at The
Batter's Box, a blog hosted by Blue Jays correspondent Kent
Williams at http://www.parentbooks.ca/bbox/coach.htm ... An
archive of more than 100 columns posted since 2000 is
available at
http://dellepro.dellhost.com/doherty/sports/ESPN/. Send
questions or comments to RotoYanks@yahoo.com.