February 6, 2003
Baseball Weakly: Yank Forecast Erratic
Do you feel a draft? There must be one coming on soon; the
printed fantasy baseball publications are starting to hit the
newsstands. All of the books and most of the magazines are
essentially worthless except as a collection of winter
rosters; they go to press anywhere from three weeks to three
months before you see them in Barnes & Noble. That means they
list Pudge Rodriguez and Jose Cruz, Jr. as free agents and are
still caught up in Philadelphia's recent acquisitions of Jim
Thome and David Bell.
Hey, Man ... You Goin' to Woodstock?
In the world of the Web, that's about as useful as speculating
about the fantasy impact of the big Bobby Bonds for Bobby
Murcer trade between the Giants and Yankees. (Attention Gen
Xers: the reference is to the first one-for-one trade of
players who made -- gasp! -- at least $100,000. The year was
1974. I was eight.) Anyway, that's one reason internet
resources like this one are so popular; the immediacy of the
medium means the latest information -- and, as the disclaimers
on these pages are careful to note, speculation -- fast, fast,
fast.
A Rag ... er, Mag By Any Other Name ...
So let's immediately address some of the Yankee-related
speculation just published in Baseball Weekly. (Yes, yes, they
re-named the publication after they desecrated it by adding
pigskin-related hoo-ha, but in this space we shall choose to
ignore the violation of trust.) In what we can only hope is
just the first installment of the publication's traditionally
in-depth listings, veteran writer Mat Olkin looks at "Impact
Rookies" including #2 Hideki Matsui; "Youngsters on the Rise"
including #9 Nick Johnson; and "Developing Pitchers" including #7 Jeff Weaver.
Godzilla Roams Gotham
Of Matsui, we read "there's a legitimate question about how
much his power will suffer ... [but] put him down for a Carlos
Delgado-type year." That's wildly optimistic, but in an
AL-only league where OF depth is weak, Matsui is a good gamble
for .280/28/90. Godzilla, as they call him, won't be Tsuyoshi
Shinjo, but it's unlikely he'll be the power-hitting
equivalent of the uni-named Ichiro, either. And with lots of
other proven sticks in the dugout ready to take OF/DH at-bats
-- Juan Rivera, Rondell White, Nick Johnson, Todd Zeile, not
to mention Bernie Williams -- Matsui may sit more than he's
used to.
Probable Starters
#1 PR: Clemens; Reality: Mussina
#2 PR: Wells; Reality: Pettitte
#3 PR: Mussina; Reality: Weaver
#4 PR: Pettitte; Reality: Clemens
#5 PR and Reality: Contreras (Boomer?)
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Nick's Cuts May Be Shaved
Olkin's take on Johnson is almost dead-on: "He's got the
discipline to work deep counts and the ability to hit with two
strikes. He almost certainly will get more at-bats and do more
with them." But it is worth wondering -- with all those bats
looking for time, and Jason Giambi entrenched at "Nick the
Stick's" natural position of 1B, will he really get more than
the 378 AB (just a shade under 450 PA) that came in 2002? What
the Yankees should do is bat Derek Jeter leadoff, hit Johnson
second as the everyday DH and drop Alfonso Soriano to an RBI
slot. Unfortunately, that won't happen and Johnson's value
deflates accordingly.
Lie About Weaver, Then Get Him
Jeff Weaver, we learn to our great surprise, is involved in a
numbers game vying to get starts in a deep Yankee rotation.
Nevertheless, fantasy owners are encouraged by Olkin's news
that Roger Clemens and David Wells are both 40 and the fact
that "Weaver's arm is fresh from last year's stint in the
bullpen and he is opening the season with a contender for the
first time." If Olkin had done his homework, he might also
have mentioned that Joe Torre has publicly promised to start
the year with Weaver in the rotation. Play up the numbers game
at your draft and steal Weaver's breakout season stats.
Elliptical Information ...
Where's Jose Contreras in the "Impact Rookies" category? ...
No Yankees made the Top 10 in "Alternate Closers" (look for
Steve Karsay and Juan Acevado, in that order), "Positional
Battles" or "Burnout Candidates" ... Looking to talk baseball?
Try The Batter's Box, an outstanding baseball blog coached --
er, hosted -- by Blue Jays correspondent Kent Williams at
http://www.parentbooks.ca/bbox/coach.htm; be sure to
contribute to the Joaquin Andujar Award nominations ... An
archive of more than 100 columns posted since 2000 is
available at
http://dellepro.dellhost.com/doherty/sports/ESPN/. Send
questions or comments to RotoYanks@yahoo.com.