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New York Yankees 2003 Fantasy Report
  By Mick Doherty [RotoYanks@yahoo.com] for ESPN.com
February 6, 2003
Baseball Weakly: Yank Forecast Erratic
Do you feel a draft? There must be one coming on soon; the printed fantasy baseball publications are starting to hit the newsstands. All of the books and most of the magazines are essentially worthless except as a collection of winter rosters; they go to press anywhere from three weeks to three months before you see them in Barnes & Noble. That means they list Pudge Rodriguez and Jose Cruz, Jr. as free agents and are still caught up in Philadelphia's recent acquisitions of Jim Thome and David Bell.

Hey, Man ... You Goin' to Woodstock?
In the world of the Web, that's about as useful as speculating about the fantasy impact of the big Bobby Bonds for Bobby Murcer trade between the Giants and Yankees. (Attention Gen Xers: the reference is to the first one-for-one trade of players who made -- gasp! -- at least $100,000. The year was 1974. I was eight.) Anyway, that's one reason internet resources like this one are so popular; the immediacy of the medium means the latest information -- and, as the disclaimers on these pages are careful to note, speculation -- fast, fast, fast.

A Rag ... er, Mag By Any Other Name ...
So let's immediately address some of the Yankee-related speculation just published in Baseball Weekly. (Yes, yes, they re-named the publication after they desecrated it by adding pigskin-related hoo-ha, but in this space we shall choose to ignore the violation of trust.) In what we can only hope is just the first installment of the publication's traditionally in-depth listings, veteran writer Mat Olkin looks at "Impact Rookies" including #2 Hideki Matsui; "Youngsters on the Rise" including #9 Nick Johnson; and "Developing Pitchers" including #7 Jeff Weaver.

Godzilla Roams Gotham
Of Matsui, we read "there's a legitimate question about how much his power will suffer ... [but] put him down for a Carlos Delgado-type year." That's wildly optimistic, but in an AL-only league where OF depth is weak, Matsui is a good gamble for .280/28/90. Godzilla, as they call him, won't be Tsuyoshi Shinjo, but it's unlikely he'll be the power-hitting equivalent of the uni-named Ichiro, either. And with lots of other proven sticks in the dugout ready to take OF/DH at-bats -- Juan Rivera, Rondell White, Nick Johnson, Todd Zeile, not to mention Bernie Williams -- Matsui may sit more than he's used to.

Probable Starters
#1 PR: Clemens; Reality: Mussina
#2 PR: Wells; Reality: Pettitte
#3 PR: Mussina; Reality: Weaver
#4 PR: Pettitte; Reality: Clemens
#5 PR and Reality: Contreras (Boomer?)
Nick's Cuts May Be Shaved
Olkin's take on Johnson is almost dead-on: "He's got the discipline to work deep counts and the ability to hit with two strikes. He almost certainly will get more at-bats and do more with them." But it is worth wondering -- with all those bats looking for time, and Jason Giambi entrenched at "Nick the Stick's" natural position of 1B, will he really get more than the 378 AB (just a shade under 450 PA) that came in 2002? What the Yankees should do is bat Derek Jeter leadoff, hit Johnson second as the everyday DH and drop Alfonso Soriano to an RBI slot. Unfortunately, that won't happen and Johnson's value deflates accordingly.

Lie About Weaver, Then Get Him
Jeff Weaver, we learn to our great surprise, is involved in a numbers game vying to get starts in a deep Yankee rotation. Nevertheless, fantasy owners are encouraged by Olkin's news that Roger Clemens and David Wells are both 40 and the fact that "Weaver's arm is fresh from last year's stint in the bullpen and he is opening the season with a contender for the first time." If Olkin had done his homework, he might also have mentioned that Joe Torre has publicly promised to start the year with Weaver in the rotation. Play up the numbers game at your draft and steal Weaver's breakout season stats.

Elliptical Information ...
Where's Jose Contreras in the "Impact Rookies" category? ... No Yankees made the Top 10 in "Alternate Closers" (look for Steve Karsay and Juan Acevado, in that order), "Positional Battles" or "Burnout Candidates" ... Looking to talk baseball? Try The Batter's Box, an outstanding baseball blog coached -- er, hosted -- by Blue Jays correspondent Kent Williams at http://www.parentbooks.ca/bbox/coach.htm; be sure to contribute to the Joaquin Andujar Award nominations ... An archive of more than 100 columns posted since 2000 is available at http://dellepro.dellhost.com/doherty/sports/ESPN/. Send questions or comments to RotoYanks@yahoo.com.


OFFICIAL ESPN.COM DISCLAIMER: While these reports are filled with fantasy insight, they are based on the Correspondent's point of view and may contain speculation as well as fact. © 2003, ESPN.com and Mick Doherty.