January 20, 2003
Yankee Conundrum: Don't Overpay for the Overpaid
Pity the poor Yankees. With that $150 million dollar payroll
and the flexibility to basically do whatever they want,
personnel-wise, as long as it hurts either the Mets or Red
Sox, how did the team ever allow John Halama to land in
Oakland? What is Jesse Orosco doing in San Diego? Mike Venafro
is with the hated Braves? Doesn't George Steinbrenner realize
the vulnerability of this team as it heads into 2003 with only
overpaid Sterling Hitchcock, undertalented Randys Choate and
Keisler and unlikely-to-repeat Chris Hammond as lefties out of
the bullpen? Where, I ask you, where is Brian Cashman's cash,
man?
The "We Have More Money Than You" Strategy
Okay, now, more seriously ... let's say you're playing a
traditional 12-team mixed league with 23-man rosters. The
budget each owner has to spend at auction is traditionally
$260. "Real world" baseball these days would model a similar
approach in which half of those 12 teams only spend about $150
so they can use the remaining funds to pay for car repairs;
five teams who approach or exceed the budget depending on mood
by making bad deals or mortgaging future seasons; and one team
that pretty much just spends $500 on players and dares anyone
to question the tactic.
Welcome to Yankee Planet
For as much as Steinbrenner and Cashman have turned the
Yankees into their own personal fantasy team, the result is
that many -- perhaps most -- pinstriped players are now
questionable pickups in standard fantasy leagues. How do you
fit five starter-quality outfielders into three slots when you
already have a full-time DH? How do you fit six
top-half-of-the-staff starters into a five-man rotation? Do
you actually hope for injuries? Of course not. But as a
fantasy GM, would you rather have, say, a full-time Brad
Wilkerson or a questionable Hideki Matsui? A full-time Ismael
Valdes or an, uh, punch-drunk David Wells?
Joe Torre Doesn't Have These Problems
We'll look more closely at some of the positional battles
throughout spring training, but if you have a ridiculously
early January draft scheduled, keep these things in mind:
Yankees are almost always overpaid in fantasy ball; and for
every owner who gambles and guesses right on the answer to the
outfield and rotation questions posed above, there will be
three or four who guess wrong. Way wrong. Are you
conservative? Draft Wilkerson and Valdes. Got a gambler's
instinct? Getting Jeff Weaver for $5 and Juan Rivera for a
buck might just win you a Yoo-Hoo shower.
Probable Starters
Clemens ... shooting for #294
Pettitte ... next in line if it's R/L
Mussina ... nice #3, huh?
Wells ... won't win 19 again
Contreras ... unless it's Weaver
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So Drafting Yankees is Bad? Uh ... No ...
Let's be clear ... there are certain Yankees who will, and
should, go very early in your draft. Jason Giambi. Duh.
Alfonso Soriano -- as noted here last September, not the Hall
of Famer the media has him pegged to be, but as a fantasy 2B,
nobody else compares. Given various age, health and resident
alien concerns, Mike Mussina is really the only sure thing in
the rotation. Jorge Posada is, as of right now, the top
fantasy catcher in the AL, though not in New York City. Bernie
Williams is the safest bet in the OF, in part because he's the
only true CF, and his #7 AL ranking to close 2002 remains
about right.
I'm OK, You're OK, Derek Jeter is OK
Derek Jeter fans, please just admit that your guy is now the
#5 fantasy shortstop, behind Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada,
Nomar Garciaparra and new Coors resident Jose Hernandez.
Someone will wildly overpay for Jeter; don't let it be you.
Mariano Rivera was going in the top 10 of many mixed-league
drafts last season; after an injury-plagued year and in a
market where saves are the most volatile of fantasy stats, the
fourth round would be an early reach in 2003. Third base may
be split by good pals Todd Zeile and Robin Ventura, rendering
both less valuable. The rest of the rotation -- we'd best save
that for another day.
Bloggin' It
The one-line wrapup for you early drafters: Don't overpay for
any Yankees not named Giambi or Soriano, and to a lesser
extent, Mussina, Posada and Williams. Ponder the great loss
that was John Halama. Looking to talk baseball? Try The
Batter's Box, an outstanding baseball blog hosted by Blue Jays
correspondent Kent Williams at
http://www.parentbooks.ca/bbox/coach.htm and frequented by A's
correspondent John Gizzi, Texas scribe Scott Lucas, and this
Lone Star Yank among others. An archive of more than 100
columns posted since 2000 is available at
http://dellepro.dellhost.com/doherty/sports/ESPN/. Send
questions or comments to RotoYanks@yahoo.com.
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