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New York Yankees 2003 Fantasy Report
  By Mick Doherty [RotoYanks@yahoo.com] for ESPN.com
January 20, 2003
Yankee Conundrum: Don't Overpay for the Overpaid
Pity the poor Yankees. With that $150 million dollar payroll and the flexibility to basically do whatever they want, personnel-wise, as long as it hurts either the Mets or Red Sox, how did the team ever allow John Halama to land in Oakland? What is Jesse Orosco doing in San Diego? Mike Venafro is with the hated Braves? Doesn't George Steinbrenner realize the vulnerability of this team as it heads into 2003 with only overpaid Sterling Hitchcock, undertalented Randys Choate and Keisler and unlikely-to-repeat Chris Hammond as lefties out of the bullpen? Where, I ask you, where is Brian Cashman's cash, man?

The "We Have More Money Than You" Strategy
Okay, now, more seriously ... let's say you're playing a traditional 12-team mixed league with 23-man rosters. The budget each owner has to spend at auction is traditionally $260. "Real world" baseball these days would model a similar approach in which half of those 12 teams only spend about $150 so they can use the remaining funds to pay for car repairs; five teams who approach or exceed the budget depending on mood by making bad deals or mortgaging future seasons; and one team that pretty much just spends $500 on players and dares anyone to question the tactic.

Welcome to Yankee Planet
For as much as Steinbrenner and Cashman have turned the Yankees into their own personal fantasy team, the result is that many -- perhaps most -- pinstriped players are now questionable pickups in standard fantasy leagues. How do you fit five starter-quality outfielders into three slots when you already have a full-time DH? How do you fit six top-half-of-the-staff starters into a five-man rotation? Do you actually hope for injuries? Of course not. But as a fantasy GM, would you rather have, say, a full-time Brad Wilkerson or a questionable Hideki Matsui? A full-time Ismael Valdes or an, uh, punch-drunk David Wells?

Joe Torre Doesn't Have These Problems
We'll look more closely at some of the positional battles throughout spring training, but if you have a ridiculously early January draft scheduled, keep these things in mind: Yankees are almost always overpaid in fantasy ball; and for every owner who gambles and guesses right on the answer to the outfield and rotation questions posed above, there will be three or four who guess wrong. Way wrong. Are you conservative? Draft Wilkerson and Valdes. Got a gambler's instinct? Getting Jeff Weaver for $5 and Juan Rivera for a buck might just win you a Yoo-Hoo shower.

Probable Starters
Clemens ... shooting for #294
Pettitte ... next in line if it's R/L
Mussina ... nice #3, huh?
Wells ... won't win 19 again
Contreras ... unless it's Weaver
So Drafting Yankees is Bad? Uh ... No ...
Let's be clear ... there are certain Yankees who will, and should, go very early in your draft. Jason Giambi. Duh. Alfonso Soriano -- as noted here last September, not the Hall of Famer the media has him pegged to be, but as a fantasy 2B, nobody else compares. Given various age, health and resident alien concerns, Mike Mussina is really the only sure thing in the rotation. Jorge Posada is, as of right now, the top fantasy catcher in the AL, though not in New York City. Bernie Williams is the safest bet in the OF, in part because he's the only true CF, and his #7 AL ranking to close 2002 remains about right.

I'm OK, You're OK, Derek Jeter is OK
Derek Jeter fans, please just admit that your guy is now the #5 fantasy shortstop, behind Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra and new Coors resident Jose Hernandez. Someone will wildly overpay for Jeter; don't let it be you. Mariano Rivera was going in the top 10 of many mixed-league drafts last season; after an injury-plagued year and in a market where saves are the most volatile of fantasy stats, the fourth round would be an early reach in 2003. Third base may be split by good pals Todd Zeile and Robin Ventura, rendering both less valuable. The rest of the rotation -- we'd best save that for another day.

Bloggin' It
The one-line wrapup for you early drafters: Don't overpay for any Yankees not named Giambi or Soriano, and to a lesser extent, Mussina, Posada and Williams. Ponder the great loss that was John Halama. Looking to talk baseball? Try The Batter's Box, an outstanding baseball blog hosted by Blue Jays correspondent Kent Williams at http://www.parentbooks.ca/bbox/coach.htm and frequented by A's correspondent John Gizzi, Texas scribe Scott Lucas, and this Lone Star Yank among others. An archive of more than 100 columns posted since 2000 is available at http://dellepro.dellhost.com/doherty/sports/ESPN/. Send questions or comments to RotoYanks@yahoo.com.


OFFICIAL ESPN.COM DISCLAIMER: While these reports are filled with fantasy insight, they are based on the Correspondent's point of view and may contain speculation as well as fact. © 2003, ESPN.com and Mick Doherty.